In-person, pick up or delivery? Evolving patterns of household spending behavior through the early reopening phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consumer reactions to COVID-19 pandemic disruptions have been varied, including modifications in spending frequency, amount, product categories and delivery channels. This study analyzes spending data from a sample of 720 U.S. households during the start of deconfinement and early vaccine rollout to understand changes in spending and behavior one year into the pandemic. This paper finds that overall spending is similar to pre-pandemic levels, except for a 28% decline in prepared food spending. More educated and higher income households with children have shifted away from in-person spending, whereas politically conservative respondents are more likely to shop in-person and via pickup.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and generational heterogeneity on ecommerce shopping styles – A case study of Sacramento, California

The COVID pandemic has accelerated the growth of ecommerce and reshaped shopping patterns, which in turn impacts trip-making and vehicle miles traveled. The objectives of this study are to define shopping styles and quantify their prevalence in the population, investigate the impact of the pandemic on shopping style transition, understand the generational heterogeneity and other factors that influence shopping styles, and comment on the potential impact of the pandemic on long-term shopping behavior. Two months after the initial shutdown (May/June 2021), we collected ecommerce behavioral data from 313 Sacramento Region households using an online survey. A K-means clustering analysis of shopping behavior across eight commodity types identified five shopping styles, including ecommerce independent, ecommerce dependent, and three mixed modes in-between. We found that the share of ecommerce independent style shifted from 55% pre-pandemic to 27% during the pandemic. Overall, 30% kept the same style as pre-pandemic, 54% became more ecommerce dependent, and 16% became less ecommerce dependent, with the latter group more likely to view shopping an excuse to get out. Heterogeneity was found across generations. Pre-pandemic, Millennials and Gen Z were the most ecommerce dependent, but during the pandemic they made relatively small shifts toward increased ecommerce dependency. Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation were bimodal, either sticking to in-person shopping or shifting to ecommerce-dependency during the pandemic. Post-pandemic intentions varied across styles, with households who primarily adopt non-food ecommerce intending to reverse back to in-person shopping, while the highly ecommerce dependent intend to limit future in-store activities.

For whom did telework not work during the Pandemic? understanding the factors impacting telework satisfaction in the US using a multiple indicator multiple cause (MIMIC) model.

The COVID-19 pandemic required employees and businesses across the world to rapidly transition to work from home over extended periods, reaching what is likely the upper bound of telework in many sectors. Past studies have identified both advantages and disadvantages of teleworking. The pandemic experience offers a unique opportunity to examine employees' experiences and perceptions of telework given the broad participation duration and extent. While employer strategies will play a major role in defining the future forms and adoption of telework, employee preferences and constraints, such as access to appropriate technology to work from home or the home environment, are also going to be important factors. Using data from a U.S. representative sample of 318 working adults, this study uses a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause Model (MIMIC) to understand employee satisfaction with telework. The presented model links telework satisfaction with experienced and perceived benefits and barriers related to telework, and hence provide a causal structure to our understanding of telework satisfaction. We also present an ordered probit model without latent variables that help us understand the systematic heterogeneity in telework satisfaction across various socio-demographic groups. The results suggest younger and older aged individuals experienced/perceived lower benefits and higher barriers to teleworking compared to middle aged individuals. The results also suggest a disproportionate impact on Hispanic or Latino and Black respondents as well as on those with children attending online school from home. Accordingly, this study highlights important factors impacting telework adoption that employers and policy makers should consider in planning future work arrangements and policies in a post-pandemic world.

Future of Work: Scenario Planning for COVID-19 Recovery [Project]

The Future of Work Scenario Planning Workshop will engage experts in transportation, major employers, and real estate and development companies in June 2021. The experts (n=30 to 40) will define a key focal issue around the future of work in response to COVID-19 recovery and the corresponding timeline for the scenarios (e.g., 1 to 3 years, 4 to 6 years). The workshop will identify key driving forces including critical uncertainties, develop plausible scenario worlds, and identify key policy strategies and research recommendations to maximize social and environmental outcomes. University Transportation Center (UTC) researchers will integrate key findings from the Telemobility UTC longitudinal panel survey, which documents work-from-home/telework activities of respondents and their preferences for the future of work in COVID-19 recovery. The workshop will also inform future UTC respondent surveys on work-from-home/telework. The workshop will focus on employers and real estate/development company responses to COVID-19 recovery based on key driving forces, such as state of the virus/vaccine (public health and safety), employee preferences, and economic factors (productivity and revenue). Experts will examine potential impacts on transportation modes such as public transit, shared mobility, and auto ownership/use. The scenarios will also inform regional modeling efforts and policy strategies to maximize the public good.

Double the Trouble: A Playbook for COVID-19 and Evacuations

Evacuation and response plans require thoughtful strategies that build mandatory evacuation order compliance, reduce vehicular congestion, and increase social equity for disadvantaged populations. However, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic coincided with a series of devastating disasters in 2020 that have required mass evacuations, leading to several new compounding effects (i.e., “double the trouble”). Strategies typically used in evacuations (e.g., high-capacity vehicles and public congregate shelters) and movements of people (e.g., evacuees, first responders, and volunteers) could increase the risk of COVID-19 spread and exposure. Moreover, disadvantaged populations who are already disproportionately impacted by disasters and COVID-19 separately could face new challenges in dual crises. To address these new and growing challenges, this playbook employs insights from case studies (n=12), survey data of individuals impacted by public safety power shutoff (PSPS) events (n=210), and expert interviews (n=17). Using these data, the playbook: (i) shares recent lessons learned from case studies of compounding disasters during the pandemic;(ii) offers a primer for the potential compounding impact of PSPS events and disasters;(iii) highlights current considerations in the emergency management and evacuation fields;and (iv) provides a series of actionable checklists to address COVID-19 and a compounding disaster. Relevant stakeholders in disasters and evacuations that should use this playbook include public agencies, first responders, community-based organizations, non-governmental organizations, private mobility companies, public health facilities, and other evacuation stakeholders. The playbook can be adapted for multiple hazards, different local contexts, various agency types, and future pandemics.

Future of Public Transit and Shared Mobility: Scenario Planning for COVID-19 Recovery

In 2020, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic enveloped the world, leading to a public health crisis that profoundly changed all aspects of society, especially multiple sectors in transportation such as public transit and shared mobility. With so much uncertainty about the future of travel, the transportation sector needs to move rapidly to shape the nature of public transit and shared mobility services during the COVID-19 recovery period. Consequently, the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies (UC ITS) and the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Executive Committee launched a scenario planning exercise from June to September 2020 involving 36 transportation experts. The exercise resulted in a series of policy options and research directions across three timeframes (i.e., within 12 months, one to three years, four to six years) that could guide the recovery of the public transit and shared mobility industries. This report offers several key takeaways. First, external forces beyond COVID-19 (e.g., economy, political will, etc.) will significantly drive the future of public transit and shared mobility and determine the effectiveness and feasibility of any policy strategies. Second, while public transit and shared mobility face a dire future in the short run, steps can be taken immediately to reduce the effects of the current crisis, while also laying the groundwork for more sustainable transportation in the future beyond COVID-19. Actions taken to only address the current crisis will not prepare public transit and shared mobility for the future. Finally, future policies and actions will not be effective without in-depth analysis and development. Research and lessons learned from demonstration and pilot projects will be critical for crafting policies, identifying all positive and negative outcomes, and shaping actions toward a future transportation system that is more resilient, socially equitable, and environmentally friendly.

Public Transit and Shared Mobility COVID-19 Recovery: Policy Options and Research Needs

While the COVID-19 crisis has devastated many public transit and shared mobility services, it has also exposed underlying issues in how these services are provided to society. As ridership drops and revenues decline, many public and private providers may respond by cutting service or reducing vehicle maintenance to save costs. As a result, those who depend on public transit and shared mobility services, particularly those without access to private automobiles, will experience further loss of their mobility. These transportation shifts will be further influenced by changing work-from-home policies (e.g., telework). While uncertainty remains, work-from-home will likely alter public transit and shared mobility needs and patterns, necessitating different services, operation plans, and business structures. To facilitate the recovery of both public transit and shared mobility services in the short-term and improve mobility for society over the longer term, researchers at the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies (UC ITS) and the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Executive Committee conducted a multi-phase scenario planning exercise based on the Delphi method from June to September 2020, drawing on 36 experts from across the United States. Together, the experts developed a series of policy options based on possible future scenarios across three timeframes — within 12 months, one to three years, and four to six years — to assist in addressing the short-term challenges and eventual business recovery of public transit and shared mobility services along with longer-term improvements to these industries to increase mobility for all, particularly those in marginalized communities.